An 8-instrument Indian MF/ETF portfolio engine, screened against 752 alternatives and walk-forward validated — passive ETFs where markets are efficient, active managers only where skill has actually shown up.
This page documents a category-weighted MF/ETF portfolio built through a screened, walk-forward-validated process — not a hand-picked shortlist. Starting from a 9-instrument momentum-rotation model that failed out-of-sample testing (-8.97% CAGR blind vs +12% for simple buy-and-hold), the design was rebuilt around what actually survives scrutiny: passive ETFs for efficient markets, and only two active fund picks (Mid Cap, Small Cap) that showed real, if decaying, edge across a 656-fund screen. Over the actual trailing 5 years, the Safe model returned 15.60% CAGR against Nifty 500's 11.97% — real history, not a projection. The full 6.2-year backtest shows a flashier 22.04% vs 19.18%, but that longer figure is inflated by the exceptional 2020-21 COVID-recovery months and shouldn't be treated as the expectation. A composite benchmark — same equity/gold/US split, zero fund selection — isolates a genuine skill edge from the asset-allocation decision alone, and that edge held up across every window tested, recent or full-period.
Safe CAGR (actual, trailing 5yr)15.60%vs 11.97% Nifty 500 — real history, not a backtest. Full 6.2yr backtest average is 22.04% (inflated by 2020-21 recovery, see Calculator)
Max drawdown (actual, trailing 5yr)-9.78%vs -17.78% Nifty 500 — drawdown is stable across windows, unlike CAGR
Universe screened752funds + ETFs, 24 categories — full rank →
The Model
One model: Safe
We tested three risk variants (Safe / Balanced / Aggressive). Across every actual recent window — 1yr, 3yr, and 5yr — Safe beat both Balanced and Aggressive on return AND had the shallowest drawdown, a clean sweep rather than the usual risk/return tradeoff. Balanced and Aggressive only look better over the full 6.2-year backtest, which is inflated by the exceptional 2020-21 COVID-recovery rally that heavier-equity profiles rode harder. Since that period has passed, we're keeping only Safe going forward — carrying Balanced/Aggressive as live options would imply they're equally reasonable choices, and the recent data says they aren't.
Skill edge (measured on the 6.2yr backtest) isolates fund selection from asset allocation — the gap between this portfolio and a passive benchmark holding the identical equity/gold/US split in plain index exposure, no active fund picks. The other three stats above use actual trailing 5-year figures, not the 6.2yr backtest, for consistency with the rest of this page.
Growth Calculator
What would your money do
Adjust the sliders to see how a specific amount would grow under the selected profile — as a one-time lump sum, or as a recurring monthly SIP.
₹1,00,000
5 years
How it splits across the portfolio
Portfolio Construction
Target allocation
8 building blocks — passive ETFs for Large Cap, Next-50, Banking, Gold, and US Equity; screened active funds only for Mid Cap and Small Cap, where a genuine (if decaying) manager edge was confirmed.
Backtest
Model vs. Nifty 500 vs. same-mix passive
Apr 2020 – Jul 2026, split-adjusted AMFI data. Benchmarked against Nifty 500 (broader than Nifty 50, matches Dezerv's own BSE 500 TRI approach) and a composite passive benchmark holding the identical equity/gold/US split with zero active fund selection — isolating how much of the edge is asset allocation vs. fund-picking skill. The 2019-12-23 industry-wide unit-split event (Nifty/Bank/Gold ETFs across nearly every AMC) is corrected for — left unadjusted, it shows as a fake -90% crash.
AI-led modelSame-mix passive (no fund skill)Nifty 500 alone
Validation
Fund-selection walk-forward check
Re-screened the Mid Cap and Small Cap picks using only data through mid-2023, then checked what happened next, blind — the same discipline that caught the original momentum model overfitting.
Fund
In-sample Sharpe
Realized after
vs. passive alternative
Union Midcap Fund
2.15
0.69
beat Midcap150 Index (0.62) and Axis Midcap50 (0.65)
SBI Small Cap Fund
1.11
0.34
beat Smallcap250 Index (0.14)
Real decay, not durable skill at the in-sample level — but neither pick inverted to negative out-of-sample, unlike the momentum model. Both still beat their passive alternative after the edge shrank. Re-run this check roughly annually; manager edge decays.
Rebalance workflow
ETF sleeve rebalances quarterly. Active-fund sleeve rebalances once a year in December, to avoid exit-load friction on the Mid and Small Cap holdings.
Forward Test — Live
Real position, tracked openly
₹10,00,000 opened at real NAVs on 2026-07-27, Safe profile — a live position, not a backtest. (Balanced and Aggressive positions were also opened on the same day for research purposes, but aren't shown here since we're only carrying Safe forward on this page.) Monthly SIP tracking is being added next; this section currently covers lumpsum only.
Entered₹10,00,0002026-07-27 · Safe profile
Current value LIVE₹10,00,000as of 2026-07-27 (entry day)
P&L₹0 (0.00%)since entry
Ticker
Weight
Entry NAV
Units
Invested
Current NAV
Current Value
P&L
P&L %
Updated 2026-07-27 · NAVs via AMFI · Virtual capital only — not real money.
NAVs are now live
This page fetches real NAVs from a published Google Sheet on every load — GOOGLEFINANCE for exchange-quoted prices (NIFTYBEES, BANKBEES, GOLDBEES) with AMFI's official NAV as an automatic fallback via IFERROR, and AMFI directly for the mutual funds (Union Midcap, SBI Small Cap, PPFCF, S&P 500 fund) with a staleness check flagging any GOOGLEFINANCE mutual-fund quote that drifts more than 3% from AMFI's own figure. No redeploy needed for NAV updates — only for design or logic changes.
Caveats
What this doesn't tell you
Hang Seng was droppedRanked 94 of 102 ETFs screened (Sharpe 0.03, -41.8% max drawdown) — a genuine weak decade for Hong Kong/China equities, not a data error. Gold and S&P 500 already cover the diversification role.
AUM/expense ratio gapUnion Midcap and SBI Small Cap AUM/expense ratio are unconfirmed in this dataset. PPFCF's are known (~₹1.4L Cr AUM, 0.53% expense) and its recent alpha has been weak despite a long track record.
Backtest, not live moneyEvery number here assumes frictionless rebalancing with no transaction costs, taxes, or slippage. Real execution — SIP dates, capital gains on rebalance, exit loads — will produce a lower net number than shown.
6.2yr CAGR is inflated by COVID recoveryThe headline 23.37% includes the exceptional 2020-21 rally, which drops out of shorter recent windows. Actual trailing figures are lower for both us and Nifty 500 (e.g. 5yr actual: 15.13% vs 11.97%) — see the Calculator's 1y/3y/5y views, not the hero numbers, for realistic expectations.